CMC Markets专栏:德指有望短期内反弹(图)

欧洲股市随全球股市新年伊始便呈现连跌趋势,  一方面是由于中国股市大幅下跌而引发的卖空”避险”情绪所致; 二是由于原油价格的再度重磅下跌.  欧洲央行将在周四举行货币政策会议, 一些分析人士认为本次会议欧央行对于其是否会再次扩大宽松不会有明确的表态, 但由于欧元区通胀率的极度不乐观, 行长德拉吉迟早会再大刀阔斧的”宽松”. 虽说对于欧洲经济总体持有悲观态度的人士居多, 但”宽松”预期可能会给股市带来利好的短期助力.

从技术图形来看, 欧洲股市可能短期反弹仍旧有望. 从德国指数30(DAX)为例, 技术形态上, 出现短期支持的潜在形态, 德指有可能由此小幅反弹, 上方的潜在阻力位置在9700附近, 如果能够突破此位置则可能再次试探10000附近. 但长期反弹的机会很小, 1000点关口可能会是空头再次进场的位置, 下方潜在空头目标将可能为8350附近.

德国指数30的日线图中有潜在的下降楔形形成, 目前在黄金分割延展线61.8%回荡线附近受到支持, 也是日线图保利加通道下轨的位置, 此处的技术形态支持较强, 可能短期会有反弹的机会, 短期的目标有可能在9700附近, 如果能够上破则有可能再次试探10000点整数位置.

另外在随机指标快速随机与动量指针中也有在超卖区域反转的迹象. 有可能是技术型交易者作为多头的参考指标. 

长期周线图上看, 德指仍然有可能继续延下行趋势线运行,目前并没有明显的反转迹象出现, 随周线图在上周收似止跌锤的形态,但即便反弹也可能是暂时, 在趋势线处受阻仍旧可能继续呈下行趋势, 如果下破, 则下方的潜在空头目标可能在黄金分割延展线100.0%处, 8350附近.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。